Brexit 'means economy faces 50/50 recession chance'

The UK has a 50/50 chance of falling into recession within the next 18 months following the Brexit vote, says a leading economic forecaster.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) says the country will go through a "marked economic slowdown" this year and next.

It says inflation will also pick up, rising to 3% by the end of next year.

"This is the short-term economic consequence of the vote to leave the EU", said Simon Kirby of the NIESR.

Overall the institute forecasts that the UK economy will probably grow by 1.7% this year but will expand by just 1% in 2017.

This would see the UK avoid a technical recession, typically defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.

Mr Kirby argued that the June referendum vote had led to such financial and political uncertainty that this would bear directly on the spending and investment decisions of both businesses and households.

"We expect the UK to experience a marked economic slowdown in the second half of this year and throughout 2017," he said.

"There is an evens chance of a 'technical' recession in the next 18 months, while there is an elevated risk of further deterioration in the near term."

The pick-up in inflation to 3% will mainly be due to the recent fall in the value of the pound, but that should be ignored by the Bank of England the Institute said.

"The Monetary Policy Committee should 'look through' this temporary rise in inflation and ease monetary policy substantially in the coming months," Mr Kirby said.

The institute forecasts that the Bank will reduce interest rates to just 0.1% eventually, after cutting them to 0.25% later this week.

Falling optimism

In a separate report, the CBI business lobby group says that the UK's small and medium-sized manufacturers (SMEs) fear they will be hit by a fall in orders in the next three months.

Its latest quarterly survey of SMEs says business optimism has fallen at its fastest rate since January 2009, when the UK economy was falling into recession.

Now, the culprit is the uncertainty following June's Brexit vote.

Despite this, the 472 firms surveyed said that current orders were stable.

Rain Newton-Smith, the CBI's director for economics, said: "The UK's SME manufacturers reported higher production, more staff hired and now expect to sell more of their world-class goods overseas over the next quarter, with a weaker sterling having a hand in this.

"But overall they do feel less optimistic and are scaling back some investment plans in machinery and plants."

The CBI's survey is just the latest to suggest that the effect of the June referendum vote may be, in the short term at least, to depress business activity.

On Monday the Markit/CIPS manufacturing purchasing managers' indexsuggested that activity among UK manufacturers in July had shrunk at its fastest pace for three years.

Meanwhile shoppers continue to benefit from falling prices in the UK's shops, stores and supermarkets.

According to the latest survey from the trade body the British Retail Consortium, overall prices fell by 1.6% in the year to July.

Food was 0.8% cheaper than a year ago and non-food items were 2.2% lower. source-BBC

Read more>>

Instagram Stories launches and people say it's a lot like Snapchat

Instagram has launched a new feature and everyone's comparing it to Snapchat.

Instagram Stories lets users share a series of moments and then customise them with text, drawings and emoji icons.

Unlike regular posts, there are no likes or public comments - if a friend reacts you'll get a direct message.

You'll see stories from people you follow in a bar at the top of your feed.

Each story appears in a slideshow format for 24 hours."With Instagram Stories, you don't have to worry about over-posting," the app's makers say.

"Instead, you can share as much as you want to throughout the day — with as much creativity as you want." "Instagram has literally decided to become Snapchat," Harry Seaton tweeted.

Twitter and Instagram are trying to be like Snapchat with their new features," said Edsta.

"I don't know if I like it. Each platform should have its own purpose..."

Red Gaskell tweeted this Simpsons meme.

How it works

When your friend posts an Instagram Story, his or her profile picture will get a coloured ring around it. To view it, you tap on the picture.

You can also tap to go backwards or forwards or swipe to jump to another person's story.

It's not the first time a concept has evolved onto a rival platform.

Last month Snapchat launched "Memories" - originally a Facebook feature. Facebook, of course, owns Instagram. source-BBC

Read more>>

10 stocks you could wager directly to play the GST topic

the goods and services Tax (GST) invoice, which has been pending for decades, is in all likelihood to be exceeded inside the coming session of Parliament. 

The bill, which goals to simplify the oblique tax regime, could be a 'gamechanger' for the united states of america and its implementation might be a huge high quality for lengthy-time period boom, consistent with analysts. a whole lot of positions were built up over the last few days hoping that the passage of the bill might bring cheer to the marketplace. 
 Sectors like FMCG, car, cement, light electrical, multiplexes, retail and logistics can be some of the important thing beneficiaries of India's biggest tax reform. here is a list of 10 stocks that can benefi t from the implementation of GST: 

ACC 
under GST, oblique tax on cement is expected to return down. while a fall of effective quotes and supply chain expenses will deliver tangible benefi ts to the world, it might be more high quality for ACCBSE 0.ninety eight %, where profits sensitivity can be higher, assuming homogenous benefi ts in taxation. 

Century Plyboards 
organization presently can pay average indirect tax rate of 26.5% to be able to partially useful resource margin expansion and advantage from shift of alternate from the unorganised to the organised phase. Century Ply should benefi t from the shift in consumer preference closer to branded products. 

Crompton Greaves consumer 
CromptonBSE -1.72 % would benefit from the shift from the unorganised to the organised zone publish GST. fanatics which make up 45% of sales for CGCEL has 25% of income from the unorganised zone at the same time as lighting fixtures that is the second-biggest category(30% of income) has 40% sales. 

Dish tv 
presently the effective tax charge for the DTH companies levels between 20% & 21%. After GST, the blanket price could follow at 18-20% which is lower than cutting-edge tax fee for the DTH company. Dish TVBSE -1.00 % may be capable of hold higher availability of enter credits on set top containers. from the unorganised zone. 

Exide Industries 
The battery phase could benefi t from reduction in cost disadvantage vis-a-vis unorganised players which is ready forty five-50% of alternative marketplace. additionally, for the CV section, wherein unorganised gamers are a great deal greater everyday, fleet operators can declare offset for GST paid on batteries. 

Gati 
GST will result in lower transit time and thereby generate higher truck utilisation, enhance demand for excessive tonnage trucks and cause lower usual transportation charges. it'll facilitate seamless inter-kingdom fl ow of goods, which is predicted to immediately boost up call for for logistics offerings. GatiBSE 1.63 % will witness better extent boom. 

Hero Motocorp 
GST will carry 8% discount in on-street prices for access stage section and government phase. this will improve affordability and enlarge marketplace. The effective tax fee is presently diverged and stands inside the range of 30-forty seven%. For companies like Hero MotoCorp, GST will even reduce the deliver chain stock fee and the logistics price by way of 30-40%. 

Pidilite 
For Pidilite, gross effective tax charges are predicted to fall signifi cantly. PidiliteBSE 0.98 % rarely initiates rate cuts and the financial savings on tax might force margin enlargement. submit GST, it'd additionally benefi t from gradual discount in opposition from unorganised players due to discount of pricing gap. 

TCI 
enterprise will benefit from accelerated 0.33-party logistics commercial enterprise. it's far already catering to inbound automobile logistics and will also get better volumes for its specific logistics section. With GST, all players will be introduced under a uniform tax base, moving volumes to organised players. 

V-protect 
Organised marketplace on a blended basis accounts for 60% of general addressable marketplace length, which need to see similarly boom due to the shift from unorganised to organised attributable to strong logo and distribution of V defend. present day effective tax charge is diverge between the variety of 7- 30% customer durable region.

Read more>>

Green Lives Matter' college course title has some critics seeing red

Black Lives Matter has taken offense at police saying “Blue Lives Matter” and others who say “All Lives Matter,” but now a Wisconsin school is risking ire by branding a class on environmentalism “Green Lives Matter.”

The course at University of Wisconsin at Green Bay will encourage students to support the “environmental justice movement” by “the merging of civil rights and environmental concerns.” But even Scott Furlong, the dean of social sciences at the school, acknowledged that the class name plays on what has become a loaded term.

 “Timing is everything,” he told FoxNews.com in an email. “When developed…politicizing the name of the class was not front and center for us.”

Expand / Contract

Recent UWGB graduate Nathan Fiene organized an anti-Donald Trump rally last semester that was heavily attended by Black Lives Matter protesters

Furlong said the university’s diversity director and course professor, Elizabeth Wheat, chose the title earlier this year, as the Black Lives Matter movement built strength and members began to take umbrage at variations on the phrase.

Although Furlong admitted the “world landscape since that time has changed,” the university will stand by the title, but remain open to an adjustment if pressed by offended students.

“The name doesn’t come across as very sensitive to me due to the BLM movement and the controversy,” said recent UWGB graduate Nathan Fiene, who organized an anti-Donald Trump rally last semester that was heavily attended by Black Lives Matter protesters.

However, Chrissy Bartelme, former environmental affairs chair of the UWGB Student Government Association, said the school should politicize what it calls the “green lives movement.”

“The name ‘Green Lives Matter’ should not push away students, but rather encourage them to learn about those impacted by environmental hazards,” she told FoxNews.com in an email. “The class name should have no effect on what the students will learn.”

Taught mostly by instructors “of color, women, and blue collar sectors of society,” the course fulfills a general education requirement for incoming freshmen, who will learn about topics like “migrant farm worker pesticide exposure” and “urban environmental harms.”

Although he disagrees with the “highly questionable” title, Fiene applauded the content of the course material for shedding light on perceived racism within environmental policies.

Environmental consultant Tracy Thomas agreed, adding that “green” causes support the very goals of the Black Lives Matter movement.

“’Black Lives Matter’ and ‘Green Lives Matter’ share one common thread-contiguity,” she told FoxNews.com, pointing to a historical tendency for blacks to live in worn and neglected environments.

‘Green Lives Matter’ isn’t the only eccentrically named course offered at the school-university administrators encourage faculty to develop creative titles for mandatory freshmen seminars, according to Furlong.

Freshmen can also choose to enroll in “Food Politics,” “The Science and History of Monsters” and “From Disney’s Pocahontas to the NFL: Stereotypes and the Realities of the First Nations People.”

Read more>>

Weigh 3 Factors When Making a Law School Budget

s a student at the Wiggins School of Law at Campbell University in North Carolina, Christopher Brown must study topics that are a core part of most J.D. programs, such as criminal law and constitutional law.

Less formally, he's also learning about budgeting, financial planning and low-cost living.

The 24-year-old rising third-year student has an unpaid internship for this summer, just as he did last year. He's financing his school years and the time in between with student loans and scholarships and carefully tracking his spending with a spreadsheet.

In his budget, there are line items for gas ($100 per month), groceries and miscellaneous ($500 per month) and more. He credits his mother for his budgeting skills.

"She had my back," says Brown. His mother, he says, is a certified public accountant.

[Find out how ready you are to pay for law school.]

Law school costs many students $30,000 or more per year, and the American Bar Association strongly discourages first-year students from working. Prospective and current students should think about how they'll manage their money while pursuing a J.D., experts and students say.

Here are three factors law school applicants should weigh when preparing to spend for their degree.

1. Books: Many classes for first-year students come with case books, says Tom Williams, assistant dean for academic affairs and the institution at Arizona State University'sO'Connor College of Law. And these books typically aren't cheap – he says new ones can run students between $200 and $400.

Williams encourages students to consider short-term borrowing for textbooks. "A rental of that book might be $100," he says.

Students can usually rent books from a school store or other organizations.

"Most student bar associations will also have a used book sale at the beginning of school," says Michelle Rahman, associate dean for admissions at the University of Richmond School of Law.

Because many law schools have similar first-year curriculums, students may go outside of their own school to find discounted text books, but the books may not necessarily be the right version, says Rahman. "Make sure it's the right edition."

She also encourages students to look online for cheaper books at sites such asBookFinder.com and lawbooksforless.com.

If buying or renting all the books they'll need for a semester isn't an option, students can also share.

"Jane buys the torts book. You buy the civil procedure book. And you can share those books with each other," she says.

2. Clothes: It's common for law students to dress in suits or other professional attire. There are law firm mixers, bar association events or even orientation activities that require more formalwear.

Aspiring J.D.s should plan on buying a suit and look to discount stores for deals.

"I looked for a nice blazer at a secondhand store," says Jeremy Rosenberg, a soon-to-be third-year student at CUNY School of Law.

[Pick a cost-efficient law school.]

Rahman, from the University of Richmond, recommends one suit in a neutral color, such as navy or gray, that allows students to interchange their shirts or their ties.

"I think a reasonable budget is $200 to $400 for an inexpensive suit," says Williams, from the O'Connor College of Law, when discussing men's professional wear. "As you go through law school, eventually you're going to need more than one but at least at the beginning you can probably get by with one."

Prospective students may also find that the school they plan to attend will help them keep clothing costs low.

In October, Arizona State will have a fashion show to help students learn how to dress, and participating clothing companies will offer discounts to the law students, says Ray English, assistant dean for the office of career and employment services at O'Connor.

"If you don't look the part, it's going to be hard to get the part," he says.

3. Bar exam preparation: To become a licensed attorney, law graduates must pass a bar exam. Students often take a preparation course for the exam and the test the summer after they graduate. It's not advised, experts say, for law graduates to work while studying, which means more time without a paycheck.

"We really talk to students early about planning for how they're going to survive that period between graduation and the bar exam, and pay for their bar prep," says Williams. "The bar prep courses are expensive."

Online options may cost a few hundred dollars, but a popular bar preparation company such as BARBRI Law Review can cost students significantly more, he says. In the District of Columbia, for example, a BARBRI prep course can cost $3,495.

"It's really something they should plan for as soon as they can and start figuring out how they're going to afford it and set aside money," says Williams.

Read more>>

Southern Health NHS Trust 'paid millions' to Katrina Percy's associates

A troubled NHS trust has paid millions of pounds to companies owned by previous associates of its embattled chief executive, BBC News has learned.

One firm received more than £5m despite winning a contract valued at less than £300,000, while another was paid more than £500,000 without bidding at all.

Both are owned by former acquaintances of Southern Health NHS Trust's chief executive Katrina Percy.

The trust said it took its financial responsibilities "very seriously".

'Failure of leadership'

The BBC has also learned Southern Health has access to the services of former Labour spin doctor Alastair Campbell, after it hired Portland Communications to help with its ongoing problems.

Mental health trust Southern Health has been under intense scrutiny since an NHS England-commissioned report in December found it failed to investigate the unexpected deaths of hundreds of patients.

A failure of leadership and governance at the trust was blamed for the problems, a conclusion a subsequent CQC report in April agreed with.

In light of the criticisms, Katrina Percy, the only chief executive the trust has ever had, has faced widespread calls to resign but has refused to do so.

2006 - Management consultant Chris Martin and Katrina Percy start working together during her capacity as chief operating officer at Surrey and Sussex Hospitals

2009 - Ms Percy becomes chief executive of Hampshire Community Health Care and Mr Martin follows her, providing coaching and leadership support

2010 - Mr Martin starts a firm of organisational psychologists called Talent Works Ltd, whose website says they are "experts in culture and behaviour change"

2010 - In December, Southern Health advertises for management development support. The tender has a value of £288,000, and the contract is to last three years, with an option for a one year extension

2011 - Ms Percy joins Southern Health as chief executive and the work is awarded to Talent Works Ltd

2014 - The initial three year contract ends and the firm is paid £5.365m - an over-spend approaching 2,000%. The trust chooses to exercise its option for a one-year extension

---

Now she is facing fresh questions about two former associates, Chris Martin and Paul Gray, whose companies were paid by Southern Health.

Roy Lilley, former chairman of an NHS trust and now a health policy expert, said the overspend on Mr Martin's company was "extraordinary".

He said: "It really doesn't look good, and it casts a deep shadow over the people involved and the way in which the trust has been run by the board."

A former governor at Southern Health, John Green, who has a background in running quality management programmes, said he queried the work that Talent Works was doing at the trust.

"I was fobbed off," Mr Green said.

"I didn't get any information for well over a year. I believe the spending of public money in the NHS is nothing as accountable to the public as it should be."

Paul Gray worked with Ms Percy as director of strategy at Hampshire Community Health Care and his firms made money from the trust without having to bid for a contract.

In July 2009, he set up consultancy firm Consilium Strategy Consulting Ltd and in 2014 he formed a second company, Consilium Partners Ltd. Together they have been paid at least £602,000 by Southern Health since 2011.

In a statement, Southern Health said it had "tested the market to ensure value for money in 2011. There has been no increase in rates since this benchmarking exercise took place".

'Not unusual'

Regarding Talent Works, the trust said: "We fully accept that the original contract for Talent Works was for a sum far less than the eventual spend, however it was made clear in the tender documentation that there would be scope for additional work to be provided.

"The trust's audit committee were aware of the contract overspend but were satisfied that the market rates had been tested and that for a number of reasons, it was in the best interests of the trust for their work to continue."

It added that it was "not unusual" both men had worked with Ms Percy "given the specialist services they provide to the NHS".

Regulator NHS Improvement said it had no concerns about how the trust awarded the contracts.

It said: "All NHS organisations have a responsibility to manage their finances and procurement in a way which provides good value for money for patients and for taxpayers.

"The trust has clearly stated that it has fully market tested its contract with Consilium to ensure it delivers value for money.

"We expect all trusts to follow NHS procurement policy and at all times to do what is in the best interests of their patients."

Read more>>

Over 100 malicious campaigns tracked by Kaspersky Lab

 Russia-based software security companyKaspersky Lab on Thursday announced that its global research and analysis team has tracked 100-plus sophisticated malicious operations targeting commercial and government organisations in 85 countries.

"The growing numbers show that sophisticated threat actors are actively improving and extending their arsenal, and a lot of new actors are coming to the stage, significantly raising the overall levels of danger," the company said in a statement.

The targeted attacks are not an elite activity anymore as this kind of operation would require a lot of specialists with specific skills and a lot of funding.

Kaspersky Lab researchers have observed the emergence of smaller yet efficientcyber espionage campaigns in recent years.

These groups are hunting for sensitive information, which can be used to gain geopolitical advantages or even sold to anyone willing to pay.

According to Kaspersky , government and diplomatic organisations, financial institutions, energy companies top the list of firms which are at maximum risk of becoming a cyber espionage target.

"We've been tracking sophisticated targeted attacks for more than six years now and we have seen this kind of activity become a widely used tool for espionage and money theft," added Costin Raiu, director of Global Research and Analysis Team atKaspersky Lab.

"Intelligence-based services that make it possible for enterprise security teams to access data about the latest sophisticated threats is a must nowadays," Raiu noted.

Read more>>

7 Ways to Ease Muscle Soreness

As runners, endurance athletes, cross-fitters or whatever your sport, many times we push the limits, and find ourselves doing the penguin walk the day after a tough workout. If you’re training for a race or competition, you don’t always have the luxury of giving your body lengthy recovery time between workouts.

In order to stick to your training plan, you have to be back at it with perhaps only one recovery day under your belt. Muscle soreness is part of training. Many times, I’ve inched my way out of bed, wondering how I will ever get through the next workout. If I can barely lift my legs before I even start, how will I manage to get through a challenging tempo or long run?

Have you ever wondered, “how can I speed up muscle recovery?” Or at least ease muscle pain between workouts? Here are a few tips to aid with muscle soreness:

TIPS FOR EASING MUSCLE SORENESS

1. Stagger your key workouts out – In running, we generally do three key workouts: speed, tempo, and long run. If you stagger your difficult workouts throughout the week, this gives your body a day or two to recover in between.

Read more>>